Keir Starmer's Backers Launch 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Block Mayor's Commons Return

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an upcoming byelection.

Serious Barriers in the Selection Process

Multiple members on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to avoid any future leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he caused outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially stand for the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several sources also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the body could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

However, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to mount a significant campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.