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The direst potential impacts of the global heating for the UK have been mapped by scientists, ranging from a searing 4C increase in average temperatures to a 6.5-foot surge in sea levels. An alternative projection foresees a drop of 6C in temperatures following the failure of key Atlantic Ocean currents, which would profoundly upset agriculture and power requirements.

Plausible Events, Not Guarantees

These consequences, a number of which are linked to critical climate thresholds, are seen as unlikely but credible. The researchers stated that these projections filled a gap in planning that had rendered the UK ill-prepared for worst-case results.

"The worst-case scenarios we have outlined aren’t predictions, but they are credible," commented the professor who oversaw the study. "Britain has been planning in the absence of the tools to assess worst-case scenarios. We've now given decision-makers what they need to get ready for environmental results they wish to avoid, but dare not dismiss."

A Suite of Severe Conditions Possibilities

Another collection of dire projections details the potential extent of harsh climate between now and the year 2100. These suggest that thermometer readings could skyrocket in some months by up to 6C above the norm, while precipitation could be triple normal levels.

The likelihood of the catastrophic events coming to pass remains uncertain due to unknown factors about what action will be enacted to combat climate change and how the Earth's systems will behave. This research was described as similar to security threat evaluations or stress tests for financial systems.

Critical Outcome Details

• Severe Heating: Global temperatures exceeding 4C by 2100 could transpire if emissions cuts breaks down or if strong feedback loops including the Amazon rainforest dying emit its enormous store of carbon. This would cause extreme and prolonged heat domes and dry spells affecting the UK in summer.
• Ocean Circulation Failure: A key circulation system, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (Amoc), is weakening and losing stability due to climate change. A complete failure starting around 2030 would lead to a six-degree temperature drop in the UK. "Crop production would face immense difficulties and water supplies would be completely altered," noted Arnell.
• Rapid Sea Level Rise: A surge of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could occur if polar ice in the Arctic and Antarctic disintegrate quickly, flooding coastal cities and towns. Unlike the other scenarios, this risk is already recognized by coastal engineers.
• Aerosol Effect: Temperatures could also be increased by about 0.75C if industrial aerosols is drastically reduced. This counterintuitive effect occurs because aerosol particles from burning coal reflect sunlight from reaching the ground.

Preparing for the Unthinkable

The worst-case scenarios could be utilized in planning the development of long-term infrastructure, for example expanded cities, nuclear power stations and urban drainage systems. Understanding these climate risks could also hasten the transition to slash fossil fuel emissions.

The research formulated the extreme models using a blend of observed and historical experience, digital projections and scientific theory. These outcomes exclude potential global problems including the global food shortages and increased conflict.

This work was commissioned as part of a national climate resilience programme. Previous assessments have cautioned that not enough attention was being allocated to catastrophic yet improbable risks.

The government's climate advisors has stated that the UK needs to "prepare for two degrees of warming" and examine the dangers for four degrees. Past policy documents have been described as being "very weak" by certain experts.

A government spokesperson said: "Global warming is at the heart of our national priorities, both adapting for the future and transitioning to a renewable energy leader. It is crucial that the UK is resilient for the effects."