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In the course of the 2016 US presidential election campaign, Viktor Orbán emerged as the exclusive EU chief to support Donald Trump. This alignment was expected, in light of the Hungarian leader's adoption of divisive notions like great replacement ideology and his suppression of journalistic liberties. Commentators have noted that Mr Orbán practically wrote the playbook for the Make America Great Again campaign, with ex-Trump adviser Steve Bannon lauding Orbán as the "Trump before Trump".

Campaign Assistance In advance of Hungary's Polls

Last week, ahead of key votes in Hungary merely six months away, Donald Trump reciprocated with support. While Orbán aims for a fifth term in office leading a nation he describes as an illiberal state, his political group is behind in opinion polls. A visit to the US capital resulted in more than a few signed Maga baseball caps; it secured far more significant campaign boosts.

Energy Exemptions and Financial Shields

Although previously lecturing EU countries on the necessity to halt all energy imports from Russia, and threatening restrictions against countries continuing to import Russian energy, Mr Trump agreed to allow a special exemption for the Hungarian government – the largest EU consumer of Russian crude. Per the Hungarian leader, the Trump administration also agreed to extend a fiscal buffer to Hungary's capital if it runs into any later issues, especially as the European Union is still blocking billions in EU funding to the nation because of failures to uphold the rule of law.

The details of this deal remain vague. However Mr Trump illustrated his inclination to assist political friends after the United States extended a $20 billion in emergency funds to the Argentine leader, Argentina's president. Even though the Hungarian PM failed to obtain a presidential tour to Budapest, the discussions still turned out to be a profitable day’s work.

European Apprehensions and Global Ramifications

Within EU circles, the US president's move probably further underlined the geopolitical stakes of the forthcoming polls, before which the moderate contender, Magyar, enjoys a comfortable lead in surveys. Heads of state have learned not to look for principled consistency from the Trump administration, and accept the Trump's moves to diminish the European Union. But Mr Orbán’s exemption – secured through an agreement to buy American natural gas and nuclear power – blatantly weakens EU aspirations to eliminate imports of Russian energy by the year 2027.

• Since 2022, the two biggest EU importers of Russian oil, Hungary and Slovakia, have provided well over £10bn to the Moscow's war operations.
• Simultaneously, the Hungarian government has consistently deployed the veto power to hinder advancement in Ukraine's bid to join the EU.
• As the EU attempts to forge a unified and effective strategy for aiding the Ukrainian government, and enhancing its leverage in any upcoming peace talks, Orbán's pro-Russia stance at the negotiating table continues to be a major hurdle.

Rival's Approach

Péter Magyar has avoided pledging a drastic turnaround on the war in Ukraine, and centered his campaign on domestic issues, while stressing the necessity for the country to begin operating as a productive EU partner. After years of persistent provocations, Brussels can only wait and hope. The Hungarian leader's apathy to basic EU values, like the protection of minority groups and the independence of civil society institutions, has long been a source of shame for the EU. His persistent opposition regarding Ukraine threatens to weaken its future security.